Monthly Archives: April 2015

Android makes more money than iOS (including China)

Android vs iOS 3D battle

Android vs iOS 3D battle

Accepted wisdom and research tells us that iOS makes more money than Google Play, despite Google Play having more downloads. Nobody would argue with that. But what about iOS vs Android at a global level? Include the massive Chinese Android app stores, and Android didn’t just dominate download volumes, it made more money than iOS last year.

Apple and Google dominate app store downloads in most markets, but many folks outside China aren’t familiar with the dynamics of that amazing market. So it’s not surprising that mind share since 2007 has been mainly about the differences between iOS and Google Play, with the occasional nod to Amazon, Microsoft and others.

Apple and Google took very different approaches to China. Apple embraced China with spectacular success, but Google ultimately exited. Together with China’s inherent strengths and business dynamics, the Chinese app ecosystem now looks fundamentally different to all other markets. There are not just two dominant app stores, but five major groups (and other smaller ones). Baidu, Apple, Qihoo 360, Tencent, Wandoujia (and others) compete for the largest download market in the world. The competition in China puts both iOS and Google Play in the minority of app downloads globally, as you can see in the chart below and download volume shares here.

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Augmented/Virtual Reality to hit $150 billion disrupting mobile by 2020

AVR image blog cropped

AVR image blog cropped[Note: the installed base and revenue forecasts in this post have been completely replaced here, and are no longer valid]

VR (virtual reality) and AR (augmented reality) are exciting – Google Glass coming and going, Facebook’s $2 billion for Oculus, Google’s $542 million into Magic Leap, not to mention Microsoft’s delightful HoloLens. There are amazing early stage platforms and apps, but VR/AR in 2015 feels a bit like the smartphone market before the iPhone. We’re waiting for someone to say “One more thing…” in a way that has everyone thinking “so that’s where the market’s going!”

A pure quantitative analysis of the VR/AR market today is challenging, because there’s not much of a track record to analyze yet. We’ll discuss methodology below, but Digi-Capital’s new Augmented/Virtual Reality Report 2015 is based on how VR/AR could grow new markets and cannibalize existing ones after the market really gets going from next year.

AR is from Mars, VR is from Venus

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